Sunday, 2 June 2019

BJP an occupying force

BJP's victory in 2019 elections can be attributed to its loyal voters 

Elections in India is one of the biggest happenings in the world as there are 830 million voters participating in this progressive way of choosing their leader.

In this post I would like to analyse the results of 2019 Parliament election.
There are a total of 545 MP's in parliament out of which 2 MP's are nominated by the President of India from Anglo Indian community. Among these 545, 84 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 47 seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes.

Here is a brief on 2014 and 2019 Parliament election results :

The table below shows the number of seats attained by some of the top performing parties in 2014 and 2019 general elections

Party 2014 2019 % Increase
BJP 281 303 8%
INC 44 52 18%
DMK 0 23
AIDMK 37 1 -97%
AITC 34 22 -35%
YSRCP 9 22 144%
Others 137 120 -12%
Total 542 542

In 2014 BJP attained the magic figure to form the government on its own and though facing a more united opposition BJP prevailed in 2019.
  • Strength of BJP in parliament has increased when compared to 2014
  • Although congress showed an increasing trend it is still at a hopeless state
  • There is a huge power shift in states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh where DMK and YSRCP proved themselves to be raising powers in their respective states
Visualizing of election results of 2014 and 2019 :






Here are some of the insights we can get by comparing visual representation of 2014 and 2019 election results
  • Congress lost its foot hold in North eastern states whereas BJP became strong in those areas
  • Congress is able to withhold it's strength in Punjab
  • Although congress lost seats in many northern parts of the country it shows positive signs in southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala
  • In Tamil Nadu, AIDMK is wiped of the map ( The reason can be attributed to death of Smt.Jayalalitha and series of events post her demise)
  • In Andhra Pradesh, TDP is almost wiped off
  • By comparing the results in 2014 and 2019 in south eastern regions of the country, we can see that BJP is becoming strong in these regions. It has entered in to the states Telangana, Orissa  and West Bengal 
  • BJP is able to withhold power in most of the constituencies it has won in 2014, this is a strong sign of strength and stability 
  • BJP entered into many southern states and expect it to become more powerful in the forthcoming years
  • The trend shows many regional parties are loosing their hold in their regions and National parties are becoming more stronger
One thing is very clear Modi and Amit shah combo is very effective in strengthening BJP, for any government to function at its best there should be a strong opposition that brings the downside of each move into the argument.
These are the some of the questions that becomes relevant to many Indian voters :
  • What reforms can we expect in Modi 2.0 ?
  • Will Rahul be able the revive Congress, or will the fate of congress is a slow death ?
  • What is next best alternative to BJP ?
  • Can we see a rebound of regional parties to form a federal front ? 

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